Can Quincy Enunwa thrive on the outside?
With Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall gone, the path is clear for Quincy Enunwa to take over as a full-time starter. However, does he have what it takes to succeed on the outside?
We're going to take a more detailed look at where he has had success over the past two years and consider how this might affect his role this season.
Evolution of role
Enunwa essentially didn't play as a rookie - he made it onto the field for three snaps on the final day of the season - and spent much of his time in year two being used in a hybrid tight end role, mainly for blocking purposes. Last season, his horizons broadened to some extent, but he did most of his work in the slot.
Even in that second year, he actually had almost two-thirds of his snaps in the slot and that would typically be his starting position on many of the plays where he motioned to the edge of the line too. As for the remainder of his snaps, he had twice as many in that hybrid tight end role or in the backfield as he did on the outside.
In year three, his workload increased but his percentage of time spent in the slot was only slightly lower. However, this time he spent about 50% more of his snaps out wide as he did in the tight end or backfield roles.
Does that development from year to year give us hope that he can continue in that vein this season and start producing on the outside? And have their been any signs so far that he's heading in the right direction?
Success rate
One surprising statistic is that despite lining up outside on 66 snaps in his second season and running a route approximately two-thirds of the time, Enunwa didn't catch a single pass while lined up outside. He was unsuccessfully targeted three times.
This perhaps tells us that either Enunwa couldn't get separation, Ryan Fitzpatrick lacked the faith in him to look for him out there or the coaches didn't have much faith in him to produce out wide and therefore used him as a decoy.
Enunwa did most of the damage out of the slot in 2015, but caught less than 50% of his targets. However, he was much more efficient when lined up as the tight end or in the backfield, albeit that most of these would have been short passes.
In 2016, Enunwa improved his efficiency from the slot and was once again effective on the short passes from the backfield and tight end positions.
However, the biggest change was on the outside. Enunwa played a lot more on the outside, was targeted a lot more and had excellent success.
He caught 15 of 21 passes (72%) for 312 yards (21 yards per completion, 15 yards per attempt) and a touchdown.
In fact, these numbers are so good, you're left to wonder if he could have done even more damage if left to play on the outside.
Another interesting stat is that of Enunwa's 19 dropped passes over the last two years, 17 have come while lined up in the slot. 19 drops in 145 targets is obviously too much and the Jets will hope Enunwa can cut down on his drop rate next year. Just two of those drops came when not playing in the slot - on 47 targets - so maybe Enunwa could be more comfortable in those situations.
Who is covering him?
One of the major doubts surrounding Enunwa's ability to produce at the same level or better next season is the fact that he's more likely to face the other teams' top cornerbacks now that Marshall and Decker are gone.
Playing inside has the effect that he'll end up matched up with a variety of players over the course of a game, often linebackers and safeties. When he moved to the outside, this obviously meant he was more likely to match up with a top corner, so that hasn't happened all that often so far. However, as we've seen, his numbers when lined up outside were good, so he's generally done well whoever has covered him out there.
Players he's beaten for downfield catches when playing outside include Jamar Taylor, Ronald Darby, Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore, each of whom had good seasons in 2016. Here he is beating Darby:
In fact, Enunwa was 5-of-5 for 117 yards and a touchdown when matched up with Gilmore and Butler, the projected starters for the Patriots this season. Here's two catches he made on Butler:
On the other end of the scale, the likes of Stephen Nelson, Jimmie Ward and Ron Parker each held him to one catch on four targets.
Could this even be a situation where Enunwa actually improves his focus and raises his game when faced with a tough match-up?
Without Marshall and Decker
Earlier this offseason, we looked at how various Jets receivers had fared with both Marshall and Decker out of the line-up.
Enunwa caught just one of five targets with neither of them on the field through the first 15 games. However, the last game of the season, with both out, saw him catch a respectable five passes for 81 yards on eight targets.
You may be surprised to note that he didn't play much on the outside though, despite Marshall and Decker's absence. He played just 12 snaps outside - and half of those were running plays. Nevertheless, he did some solid work on the outside with a catch on each of his three targets for 67 yards.
Does it matter?
How important is it for Enunwa to produce on the outside? Yes, he's going to start, which should mean he's out there when the team is in two-wide personnel. However, his versatility is a blessing, not a curse, in these situations. They could put two receivers on the same side, so Enunwa can work out of the slot, or motion him onto the edge of the line or into the backfield to create a "22" look. Also, they'll mostly be running the ball in these situations anyway.
As we saw in 2015, both Decker and Marshall had a ton of success in the slot as well as on the outside, so your starters don't just have to play outside to be effective. Enunwa's ability to create in a variety of ways is going to make the offense less predictable without pigeon-holing him into a role.
Even Robby Anderson, who had the majority of his production when on the outside, made several catches from the slot, averaging 24 yards per catch and scoring both of his touchdowns.
The Jets will be in three-wide and even four-wide sets a lot, especially when they are looking to pass. There should therefore should be plenty of opportunities for Enunwa to move inside when a player like Charone Peake or Chad Hansen enters the game on the outside, which probably suits them better anyway.
Conclusions
Enunwa is a really exciting player and one underrated aspect of featuring unproven players like Enunwa in the offense more is that it will hopefully lead to a lot of exciting plays, so the team might be fun to watch in places even if they aren't winning.
There are some fascinating trends developing over the course of Enunwa's career and putting him into a full time role and seeing how well he produces is the logical next step in that evolution.
We'll see how he fares, but if Enunwa can put up big numbers this season, he's going to put himself in position to earn a lot of money within the next few years. As a restricted free agent in 2018, he could develop into the sort of player that might attract interest even if the team gives him a first round tender.