We recently investigated what the likely level of production could be for Garrett Wilson in his rookie season, based on how other Jets' rookies have fared in the past 25 years.
Let's now attempt to do the same for Breece Hall, who the Jets drafted early on in the second round.
The Jets have drafted eight tailbacks in the top four rounds in the past 25 years with, as you'd expect, mixed results.
One success story was last year's fourth round pick Ace Carter, who racked up 964 yards from scrimmage, rushed for four touchdowns and averaged 4.3 yards per carry. He had a couple of monster games in two of the Jets' wins with 118 rushing yards against the Jaguars and 162 yards from scrimmage in the Bengals game. He also contributed well in the passing game with 36 receptions. However, he only had six catches for 19 yards after week nine.
Previous success stories include Leon Washington and Shonn Greene. Washington racked up over 900 yards from scrimmage and Greene stepped up late in the year to end up with 540 rushing yards, then racked up over 300 more in the postseason. Also, LaMont Jordan was just a backup but registered an impressive 7.5 yards per carry.
At the other end of the scale, Bilal Powell was inactive for most of his rookie season and when he did play he had just 21 yards and a goal line fumble on 13 carries. Joe McKnight had a similarly unproductive rookie year with just seven carries entering the last game, but then he racked up 158 yards in the final game of the season. Leon Johnson also had a rough rookie year as he averaged just 3.3 yards per carry. All three of these were much better in their second season.
The eighth name on this list is La'Mical Perine, who - through two seasons has been a major disappointment and looks like a long shot to contribute at all in 2022 and beyond.
On balance, you could say it's about 50:50 as to whether a running back drafted by the Jets in the top four rounds will have a productive rookie year and, around the league, it's certainly the case that rookie backs can often rack up good numbers.
There's good reason to believe that Hall has a better than average chance of being a success right off the bat though. First of all, he was a higher pick than any of the others so, on paper at least, is a superior prospect. Next, the Jets figure to have a good offensive line for him to run behind - one which should be even better than the one Carter had success behind in 2021. Finally, his well-rounded skill-set should mean there's no reason his reps are limited.
Arguably the only thing working against Hall having a big year is the fact that he'll have to split time with the impressive Carter. However, the Jets will view this as a positive with the ability to keep them both fresh and go to the hot hand being added benefits to maximize their production.
What do you think Hall's numbers will be like in 2022? Let us know in the comments...