What kind of production can we expect from David Bailey in his rookie season?

Earlier in the offseason, we broke down our expectations for the rookie seasons of Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr. How about the Jets' top pick, though?

Edge defender David Bailey was selected with the second overall pick, so what production can we expect from him based on the history of Jets pass rushers drafted early on and NFL pass rushers that were drafted high in recent years?

The worst case scenario is obvious: Vernon Gholston - the sixth overall pick in 2008 - never had an NFL sack. Since Gholston, the Jets have only drafted two edge rushers in the first round; Jermaine Johnson in 2021 and Will McDonald in 2023.

(Note: This assumes that the likes of Quinton Coples and Muhammad Wilkerson are not edge rushers because, despite playing there later in their careers, neither did as a rookie).

Johnson and McDonald were both pretty similar insofar as they underwhelmed in a rotational role as rookies, but then broke out to an extent in year two. McDonald's sack count jumped from three to 10.5 as his snap count more than tripled. Johnson went to a pro bowl after tripling his sack count from 2.5 to 7.5 despite the fact his snap count only doubled.

Bailey is, of course, a much higher pick than either Johnson, who went late in the first or McDonald, who was widely considered a reach at 15. That suggests he could be more NFL ready and perhaps gives us some hope that his rookie season could look more like Johnson or McDonald's second year - or at least split the difference.

Incidentally, the Jets only made three day two picks at the position since the Gholston draft and all three were basically busts, especially Jachai Polite and Jabari Zuniga. Lorenzo Mauldin at least showed some things as a rookie. In fact he had more sacks than Johnson or McDonald in his rookie year, ending with four.

Another player who had four sacks as a rookie was Abdul Carter, who is an obvious comparison for Bailey as he was the first defensive player selected last season with the third overall pick. He had entered December with 0.5 sacks but moved into a more conventional edge role down the stretch and was more productive. Is Bailey a better prospect than Carter, though? Most draft experts would probably say no.

Three other rookies last year outproduced Carter in the sack column, with James Pearce racking up 10.5. Nick Scourton had five and Jalon Walker added 5.5.

Looking back to 2024, Chop Robinson was the only edge with over five sacks in his rookie season as he had six. 2023 had more success stories though, as three players had seven or more, including seven by the first overall pick, Will Anderson.

All of this tells us that as long as you get an opportunity to play regularly, 3-4 sacks would usually be the least you'd expect from a top rookie pass rusher and that seven is a reasonable target for a good one.

As Pearce showed last year, it's not impossible to get double digits, but expectations for Bailey may not be that high until the Jets have proven they have a strong defense at all levels.

A projection of seven sacks ties in with what Anderson managed as a rookie, probably would have been a reasonable outcome for Carter if he played a more conventional role all year and falls in between what Johnson and McDonald achieved in their rookie year and their second season, which seems reasonable.

If Bailey can end up in that kind of ballpark, this hopefully will indicate he's on the right track to being the same kind of impact player Anderson was last season.

What do you think Bailey's numbers will be like in 2026? Let us know in the comments...