What kind of production can we expect from Mason Taylor in his rookie season?

We recently investigated what the likely level of production could be for Arian Smith in his rookie season, based on how other Jets' rookie receivers have fared in the past 25 years.

Let's now attempt to do the same for tight end Mason Taylor, whom the Jets drafted in the second round of April's draft.

The Jets have had mixed results with the tight ends they selected in the first three rounds since Anthony Becht was a first round pick back in 2000. Taylor will be the fifth such player after Jeremy Ruckert, Chris Baker, Jace Amaro and Dustin Keller.

While none of those four became star players, the Jets did get good production from Keller and Amaro, who caught 48 and 38 passes respectively in their rookie seasons. That was not the case for Ruckert and Baker though, although Baker was much more productive than Amaro later on in his career and there's still some faint hope that Ruckert might start and break out this year.

The Jets, who also got 39 receptions out of fourth round pick Chris Herndon in his rookie season (and not much thereafter) will be hoping Taylor ends up near the high end of this scale. After all, Baker and Ruckert's lack of production was largely because they had established starters ahead of them in their rookie year (Becht was ahead of Baker and Ruckert was behind Tyler Conklin and CJ Uzomah). Taylor has no such established veteran ahead of him with Ruckert his primary competition.

It may therefore be more instructive to consider how successful rookie tight ends typically are on a league-wide basis.

Back in Ruckert's rookie year, there were seven rookie tight ends with 25 or more catches; most of them picked later on in the draft than Taylor was. It was Cade Otton, a fourth round pick with 42 catches, who led all rookie tight ends so nobody produced on an elite level. That 25 catch threshold is probably the low end of what are expectations for Taylor should be if he stays healthy.

Five rookie tight ends had 25 or more catches in 2023 with Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta catching 159 passes between them. This is tantalizing in terms of Taylor's top end potential because LaPorta is a second round pick and Kincaid was a late first-rounder, suggesting he's on a similar level to those players having himself been drafted with the 10th pick of round two. In addition, LaPorta had this success on a Lions team which has since had half its coaching staff joining the Jets.

"Somewhere between 25 and 80 receptions" is too wide of a range to be a worthwhile projection though, so we need to consider other factors to decide on where he falls on this scale.

Over 40 certainly seems viable for a Jets rookie tight end with an opportunity for playing time, based on the production from the likes of Amaro, Herndon and Keller as rookies, so maybe that can be the low end.

Playing with Justin Fields also bodes well for Taylor. Four of Fields' five touchdown passes in his six games with the Steelers last year went to tight ends and Pat Friermuth was consistent with 22 catches including two touchdowns, putting him on a pace for about 60 and five if extrapolated to a full season. Also, Cole Kmet had a career year with 73 catches with Fields at the helm in 2023.

On that subject, though, Ruckert has a slight advantage having been a collegiate teammate of Fields, which could see Fields trusting him more early on and limiting Taylor's overall potential to produce.

It's not impossible Taylor could emulate the likes of LaPorta and Brock Bowers and outstrip that level of production, but we perhaps shouldn't set our sights too high given the fact his best college season was only 55 catches.

Let's assume he's likely to fall short of that top end potential and make the projection 45-to-55 catches in year one.

What do you think Taylor's numbers will be like in 2025? Let us know in the comments...