What kind of production can we expect from Omar Cooper Jr. in his rookie season?

Yesterday, we broke down what the likely level of production could be for Kenyon Sadiq in his rookie season. Now it's Omar Cooper's turn.

We carried out a similar exercise last year for Arian Smith, but can probably throw that out on the basis that Cooper was a much higher pick. Our expectations for Smith were low anyway, as we suggested it would be a good sign if he could emulate Jalin Hyatt's rookie numbers but then build on that in year two and three as Hyatt failed to.

Smith ended up way short of Hyatt's numbers and doesn't look set to have much of a role in year two, unless he really turns things around for himself, but expectations for Cooper will be understandably much higher, since he was a first round pick.

Let's instead go back to when the Jets drafted Garrett Wilson and we did the same exercise with him. While we didn't put a solid number on what our prediction was for his rookie year, we felt it was unlikely that he'd have a better rookie year than Keyshawn Johnson (63-844-8TD).

In the end, Wilson exceeded Johnson's output, although part of the reason why he was able to get enough targets was that the other receivers on that team (Braxton Berrios, Corey Davis and Elijah Moore) didn't end up playing as much of a role as we'd expected.

Wilson was a top-10 pick, so Cooper won't be counted upon to have a thousand-yard season as a rookie like Wilson ultimately did, but if he has a big enough role, his target share could allow him to potentially emulate Johnson's rookie numbers like Wilson did.

There should be caution here, though, because, as we noted at the time, Wilson was really an outlier. Elijah Moore's 43 catches in 2021 was easily the best rookie output by any Jets draft pick since Johnson, whose career began 30 years ago. While Robby Anderson had 42 as an undrafted rookie, most of the highly drafted Jets did not produce much in their first year, including some players who went on to be good (Santana Moss, Jerricho Cotchery, Laveranues Coles) and some who didn't (Denzel Mims, Stephen Hill).

Ultimately if Cooper stays healthy, he has a good shot to beat Moore's rookie output, but if Wilson also stays healthy, Cooper is probably going to fall short of Johnson's rookie output.

So, let's split the difference and call it 53 catches. If we also split the difference in terms of yards and total touchdowns, that will be around 700 and seven respectively. That would probably be an encouraging output and one which certainly seems attainable.

In 2025, only three rookie wideouts had over 525 yards so this may be a little optimistic. However, five had over 700 in 2024 and Cooper was the fifth receiver selected in 2026, so it's not outside the realms of possibility.

What do you think Cooper's numbers will be like in 2026? Let us know in the comments...